The short answer is, "I'm not sure how long my company is going to keep me." Now, I'm not personally at risk of a lay off or being fired -- probably just about the opposite -- but my division is not doing well. All but one of the new development projects has been canceled, leaving us supporting the maintenance on several products in the field, and not much else. The remaining project is in trouble and I could see it being canceled soon if the primary customer gets sufficiently dissatisfied. If that happens, my team will probably drop a bunch of people. I very well might not be dropped, but the job remaining would be made up of my least favorite parts of my job and some very uninteresting and repetitive parts of other people's jobs.
Unfortunately, each time I look, I'm not seeing nearly as much demand for senior software people in the Chicago area as I'd like. Now I'm not surprised. The major software employers traditionally have been my company and it competitor in Naperville. Both are suffering, not hiring and letting people go. Beyond that is the downtown business (banking and trading) companies and a number of much smaller shops. Even the ones that are hiring are advertising for people with 5 to 10 years experience, and if they post a salary it is considerably less than my current salary. I'm not taking a cut in pay if I'm still actively employed, even for decent security.
So this leaves me looking elsewhere, and getting encouraged by getting one positive response.